U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to choke off Russia’s oil revenue via secondary sanctions would deal a hammer blow to Moscow's finances, but markets are betting that the risk of higher energy prices will keep Washington from following through.

Crude oil fell for a second straight day after President Trump's 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine and avoid sanctions calmed concerns about a short-term supply disruption

Russia’s crude exports hit a one-month high, driven by a surge in weekly flows that coincided with a sharp drop in refinery runs. The increase came before President Donald Trump’s threat of secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if Moscow fails to make a swift peace with Ukraine.